Should I buy a house now? Spring Statement forecasts could make it the right time 

Summary: With the Spring Statement 2026 forecasts showing stable house price growth, lower short-term mortgage rates, and manageable affordability, now could be a good time to buy or sell.

Buyers, including first-time buyers, may benefit from relatively low mortgage rates compared to recent years and predictable house price increases, while sellers can take advantage of steady demand.

Planning your move with expert conveyancing support can help you act confidently in today’s market.

Buying or selling a home? Download our free guides to take you through the conveyancing process without jargon:

With the Spring Statement 2026 now released, many buyers and sellers are asking the same question: is now the right time to move? 

While the statement didn’t introduce any new housing policies, the economic forecasts published alongside it provide important signals for the property market. These forecasts, produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility, cover inflation, mortgage rates, economic growth and house prices. 

All of these factors influence how affordable homes are, how confident buyers feel, and how easy it is to get a mortgage. 

In this guide, we answer the most common questions buyers and sellers have after the Spring Statement and explain what the latest forecasts could mean for your next move. 

What is the Spring Statement? 

The Spring Statement is an annual economic update from the UK government. It’s not a full Budget, like the Autumn Budget 2025. Instead, it mainly provides updated economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). 

These forecasts look at: 

• Inflation 
• Economic growth (GDP) 
• Government borrowing 
• Mortgage rate expectations 
• House price trends 
• And more 

While the Spring Statement 2026 didn’t include major policy changes, these forecasts may still impact the housing market, influencing whether now is a good time to buy or sell. 

Key takeaways from the Spring Statement for homebuyers and sellers 

Although there were no new housing policies announced, several forecasts could still affect the property market. 

Key points include: 

• Inflation is expected to fall towards the Bank of England’s 2% target. This may lead to the Bank of England’s base rate falling over time. 
• Mortgage rates may settle around 4–5% long term, with the OBR predicting an average of around 4.5% between 2027 and 2030. This is slightly higher than the current average rate. 
• House prices are expected to rise steadily, by roughly 2.4% to 2.9% per year until 2030. This is roughly in line with predicted wage growth, so affordability should remain steady. 
• GDP growth may slow slightly in 2026, before strengthening again later in the decade. 

Overall, the forecasts suggest a calmer and more predictable housing market than the volatility seen recently. 

Click here for more on the Spring Statement forecasts and how they could impact mortgages and homebuyers.

What is the Bank of England base rate? 

The Bank of England base rate is the interest rate the central bank charges commercial banks when they borrow money. 

It’s one of the biggest influences on mortgage rates. 

When the base rate rises: 

• Borrowing becomes more expensive 
• Mortgage rates usually increase 

When the base rate falls: 

• Borrowing becomes cheaper 
• Mortgage rates often decrease 

However, mortgage rates don’t always move exactly in line with the base rate because lenders also consider inflation expectations, financial markets and long-term economic forecasts. 

Will the Bank of England base rate be cut again? 

The Bank of England cut the base rate on 18^th December 2025, from 4% to 3.75%. Many economists expect the base rate will fall to between 3.25%-3.5% by the end of 2026. However, the widely expected cut in March 2026 is looking less likely, largely due to global uncertainty. 

In fact, the timing of any cuts is uncertain. Factors such as global economic tensions, energy prices and geopolitical risks could make policymakers more cautious. 

So, while rate cuts remain possible, they may happen more gradually than previously expected.

Why are mortgage rates expected to rise between 2027 and 2030? 

Interestingly, the OBR forecasts that the average mortgage rate could rise slightly to around 4.5% between 2027 and 2030, even if the Bank of England base rate falls. 

There are several reasons for this: 

A new “normal” for borrowing costs 

Before 2022, mortgage rates were unusually low. Rates may now return to a more sustainable long-term range. 

Lender risk and regulation 

Banks may remain cautious after recent economic volatility, pricing mortgages slightly higher to protect against risk. 

More high loan-to-value mortgages 

Lenders are increasingly offering mortgages with smaller deposits to help first-time buyers. These lower-deposit mortgages typically come with higher interest rates, which can increase the average rate across the market. 

Global economic uncertainty 

Mortgage pricing is also influenced by international financial markets, not just UK interest rates. 

Overall, this suggests mortgage rates may settle into a stable range rather than falling dramatically, helping homebuyers plan their budget.

Is now a good time to buy a home? 

Whether now is the right time to buy depends largely on your personal circumstances, but the current forecasts offer some helpful context. 

There are a few reasons why buying now could make sense for some buyers: 

• Current average mortgage rates are lower than they were in 2023 and 2024, and may rise towards the end of the year. Buying now could lock in a better deal.
• House price growth is still expected, though at a steadier rate than recent years, providing a good chance of a return on your investment. 
• Affordability is predicted to remain stable, which contributes to a healthy housing market overall.  

However, due to the predicted stability, waiting may also make sense if you’re looking to save a larger deposit or improve your mortgage eligibility. Just bear in mind that average mortgage rates (and so monthly payments) may rise the longer you wait. 

The best time to purchase is when you are financially ready and planning to stay in the property long term. It’s one of the most important decisions you’ll make, but you don’t have to navigate it alone. Our experienced conveyancing team is ready to guide you through the process with clear advice, friendly support, and expert handling of the legal process.   

Whether you’ve found your dream home or you’re still looking, get a conveyancing quote today. We’ll be ready to go when you are, with no obligation. 

What you can expect with Setfords

More time, more attention: With no targets, Setfords lawyers can dedicate more time to you.

Ultimate flexibility: Our lawyers can tailor their schedules to meet your needs.

Nationwide coverage: with hundreds of consultant lawyers across the UK, we’ll connect you with the right expert.

Dedicated specialist legal partner: work directly with your chosen lawyer from start to finish.

Highly experienced: Setfords lawyers have an average of 20 years’ experience, so you can be assured you’re in safe hands.

Capacity-based allocation: our lawyers never take on more work than they can handle, so you get the focus and attention you deserve.

Get a Quote

Is now a good time to sell a home? 

For sellers, the outlook is also positive. As affordability is stable, the housing demand in the housing market should also remain steady. As we move into Spring, buyer demand also tends to go up, so now could be a great time to list your home. 

In practice, successful sellers are often those who: 

• Price their property realistically 
• Prepare their home well for sale 
• Work with experienced professionals to manage the legal process 

Received an offer or just thinking about listing? Get a conveyancing quote today, and our expert property lawyers will be ready to help when it’s time to move. With an average 4.9-star rating on Trustpilot, you’re in safe hands.

Is now a good time for first-time buyers? 

Buying your first home can feel overwhelming, especially when the market is changing. But, now is likely a good time for first-time buyers as mortgage rates are lower than they have been and affordability remains good. Indeed, data from Lloyds suggests that now is the most affordable time for first-time buyers in a decade.   

The current rates can make the jump from renting to owning more achievable, as your monthly payments will be more affordable. If average rates do rise as predicted in the coming years, you could enjoy cheaper monthly payments by making your move now. 

So, if you’re looking to take your first step on the property ladder, the market is working in your favour. Working with an experienced conveyancer is crucial to help avoid delays and get you moved into your first home even sooner. Contact us for a quote today and we’ll be ready to move when you are. 

The bottom line 

The forecasts in the Spring Statement 2026 suggest a more stable housing market over the coming years, with steady house price growth and mortgage rates likely settling around the 4–5% range. 

For buyers, this could mean a more predictable and relatively affordable environment to plan a purchase, rather than the dramatic changes seen in recent years. 

For sellers, the outlook suggests continued demand and gradual price growth. 

First-time buyers may particularly benefit from making a move now if they want to avoid average mortgage rates going up as predicted. 

Ultimately, the right time to buy or sell depends on your personal finances, long-term plans and readiness to move. 

If you are preparing to buy or sell a home, working with experienced property professionals can make the process far smoother. At Setfords, our expert conveyancing solicitors support thousands of buyers and sellers every year, helping them move quickly and confidently through the legal process. With hundreds of lawyers located nationwide, we’ll find the right one for you. Get your free quote today.

More FAQs: 

What else should I consider before I move?  

Even in a favourable market, buying a home is a big decision. The best time to buy a house depends on your personal circumstances. Here are a few important factors to think about: 

1. Your Financial Stability 

Consider your savings, job security, and ability to manage future rate changes if you choose a variable product. 

2. Property Condition 

A survey can highlight potential issues early, helping you avoid unexpected expenses. 

3. Associated Costs 

Don’t forget to budget for: 

• Stamp Duty (if applicable) 
• Legal fees – click here to get a quote for your conveyancing 
• Mortgage arrangement fees 
• Survey fees 
• Moving expenses 

4. Your Long-Term Plans 

Think about whether the property suits your expected lifestyle over the next several years. Moving sooner than planned can be costly. 

5. Market Conditions in Your Area 

Local markets vary. Our team can help explain what’s happening in your region and what buyers should be aware of. 

Will mortgage rates fall in 2026?

It’s currently impossible to say whether mortgage rates will fall further in 2026. It’s largely dependent on whether the Bank of England cuts interest rates again as well as other economic factors, including globally.

It’s still expected by many experts that rates will be cut again by the end of 2026. However, there is also a chance that rates will stay the same or even rise. So, if you’re ready to move now, you may not want to wait and see whether rates will fall even more.

Is it risky to buy a home now? 

Every home purchase involves risk, but lower interest rates often make borrowing more manageable. A mortgage adviser can help you assess whether now fits your circumstances. 

I am already a homeowner, will the fall in mortgage rates affect me? 

If you already own your own home with a mortgage, your monthly payments will stay the same, unless you are on a tracker or variable rate mortgage. The monthly payments on these types of mortgages go up or down with the base rate.

If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, your payment will not change. However, if it is time for you to remortgage, your monthly payment likely will change when you do so. Whether it goes up or down will depend on the current rate of your mortgage and the rate of the one you are moving to. If your current deal is due to end in the next three to six months, now could be a good time to start looking for a new one.

If your new rate is higher than your current rate, you will likely pay more monthly. If your new rate is lower, you will likely pay less.

Remortgaging soon? Don’t forget, you’ll need a solicitor to help with the legal process. Click here to get in touch.

Why is my mortgage rate higher than the Bank of England base rate? 

The Bank of England base rate is used as a starting point for banks to charge interest on their own products. They typically charge more interest than the base rate, and this additional margin is used to cover their costs. 

What happens if interest rates rise again? 

If interest rates rise, the impact on your mortgage depends on the type of product you have. 

If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, your payments will stay the same until the end of your fixed term. However, when you go to remortgage, the higher interest rates could mean higher monthly payments. 

If you have a tracker or variable rate mortgage, your payments will rise as the interest rates rise, as these mortgage types are typically tied to the Bank of England’s base rate. 

Buying or selling? Download our free guides to the conveyancing process: