What the Spring Statement 2026 means for mortgages and homebuyers 

Update: Since this article was first written, average mortgage rates in the UK have climbed higher than many forecasts predicted. Average deals for fixed-rate mortgages now sit at their highest level since 2024 as lenders factor in persistent inflation risks and global economic uncertainty.

This shift means that, although rates were expected to fall slightly in the short term in the Spring Statement scenario, current average borrowing costs are now higher than previously projected. Higher mortgage rates can increase monthly repayments and reduce affordability for some buyers, especially with fewer lower‑rate deals available.

However, while average rates have risen, there is still no sign of extreme volatility, and overall market conditions remain calmer than the recent past. So, prospective buyers can still enter the market with confidence; it might just require a closer look at your budget.

The 2026 Spring Statement has been released, providing the UK’s latest economic forecasts from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves using data from the Office for Budget Responsibility. While it’s not a full Budget, the statement offers insight into several key factors that affect mortgages and homebuyers, including inflation, mortgage rates, GDP growth, and house price predictions. 

For first-time buyers, those looking to move and those remortgaging, understanding these forecasts can help you make informed decisions about when and how to move forward. In this article, we break down the Spring Statement forecasts in a simple, question-and-answer format, explaining what it could mean for you and your next mortgage or move on the property ladder.

Summary: The 2026 UK Spring Statement didn’t announce any new housing policies, but its economic forecasts could impact mortgages and homebuyers. Inflation is expected to fall toward 2%, potentially lowering mortgage rates in the short term, while GDP growth slows slightly before picking up. House prices are projected to rise steadily by 2.4%–2.9% per year, broadly in line with wage growth, keeping UK home affordability stable. Average mortgage rates may increase to around a stable 4.5% between 2027–2030, offering long-term predictability, if slightly higher monthly payments. First-time buyers, home movers and those remortgaging may find it easier to plan their next move. Setfords is ready to help buyers navigate the process efficiently.

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What is the Spring Statement? 

The Spring Statement is an annual economic update from the UK Chancellor. It’s not a full Budget, like the Autumn Budget announced in November 2025.  

It’s mostly about updated forecasts for the economy provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), including growth, inflation and borrowing, and less about introducing new policies. This year, Chancellor Rachel Reeves used the Spring Statement to reaffirm the government’s economic plan, without introducing any major new tax changes or housing-specific support. 

Were any housing policy changes announced? 

No, there were no housing policy changes, new housing policies, or policies directly related to mortgages announced in the 2026 Spring Statement. 

Does this mean nothing has changed for mortgages and homebuyers? 

Not exactly. While there were no new announcements for mortgages or homebuyers in the 2026 Spring Statement, the OBR’s outlook on the economy could affect those buying a home or remortgaging indirectly, through forecasts on inflation, mortgage rates, house prices and more. 

What was announced in the Spring Statement that might impact mortgages and homebuyers? 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updated its economic forecasts, which were the centrepiece of the Spring Statement. 

The OBR’s forecasts show inflation falling faster than previously expected, moving back toward the Bank of England’s 2 % target later this year. This matters for future mortgage rates because lower inflation could give the Bank more room to cut interest rates in coming months – though uncertainty due to global tensions is making an imminent cut to the base rate look increasingly less likely. 

In the slightly longer term (2027-2030), the OBR predicts that average mortgage rates will stabilise at a slightly higher rate than they currently are at around 4.5%. This likely means higher average monthly payments, but more long-term predictability. 

Forecasts expect house prices to rise between 2.4% and 2.9% per year between now and 2030 – a relatively stable rise, largely in line with the rate average incomes rise, which could be good news, especially for those buying their first home. 

GDP growth is projected to slow in 2026 to about 1.1 %, but to pick up again over the next few years. This may knock buyer and mortgage lender confidence in the shorter term, but this could recover quickly. 

Note, these are all forecasts and may not necessarily happen, though they can help homebuyers plan. 

How could the inflation forecast impact mortgages and homebuyers? 

The OBR’s forecasts suggest that inflation is falling faster than expected, averaging 2.3% by the end of 2026 and 2% in 2027. 2% is the government’s target for inflation. 

A fall in inflation may mean the Bank of England chooses to cut its base rate, or hold it at a lower level for longer. A fall in the base rate is typically reflected in a fall in mortgage rates, which means lower monthly payments for those taking out a new mortgage or on a tracker mortgage. It’s widely predicted that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2026, though this may not continue in the coming years. 

What does this mean for homebuyers? Cheaper mortgage payments make it more affordable to purchase a property. This is especially good news for first-time buyers or those who want to buy a more expensive property.  

However, it may also encourage more buyers to enter the market, so there could be more competition, making it harder to secure your dream home and potentially pushing up house prices. 

Bear in mind that current global tensions may increase uncertainty. For example, upcoming cuts to the base rate, which were strongly predicted, are looking less likely. Furthermore, the OBR has also predicted that average mortgage rates will rise between 2027 and 2030. Despite this, current mortgage rates are at their lowest level since 2022, so now could be a good time to move if you are considering it.  

How the Spring Statement 2026 affects mortgages: a rise in average rates 

While average mortgage rates are currently at a lower level than they have been in recent years at around 4.1% and may further decrease this year, the Spring Statement 2026 mortgage outlook from the OBR has predicted the average rate will rise to 4.5% between 2027 and 2030. There are a few reasons why this might be the case: 

• While the economic forecast is looking more stable than it has in recent years, this doesn’t mean we’ll see a return to the low mortgage rates seen before 2022. In fact, the Bank of England may be more cautious to lower the base rate, which impacts mortgage rates, to avoid dramatic spikes up or down and aid stability. This could be a period of the ‘new normal,’ where average mortgage rates are higher than they were, but are more stable, which offers greater certainty for first-time buyers and home movers alike. 
• Mortgage lenders are getting more competitive, especially trying to attract first-time buyers with mortgages with a higher loan to value (LTV) rate. These mortgages enable buyers to put down a lower deposit, but also come with a higher interest rate, which could push the average up.  
• Global factors also contribute to average mortgage rates. There is some global uncertainty at the moment, including geopolitical tensions and rises in energy and commodity prices, all of which can have an impact on what’s happening in the UK. 

What does this mean for homebuyers? It looks like mortgage rates could settle in the 4-5% range over the longer term. This offers more stability to help you plan your next move. However, if you are currently on a lower rate, be prepared for a higher monthly payment when you remortgage. While the OBR’s forecast is just a prediction and may not necessarily reflect what happens in the future, now could be a good time to move as mortgage rates are not predicted to drop any further in the long term.  

What does this mean for remortgaging? If you’re not planning on moving, but your fixed term mortgage is coming to an end, this could impact you. If you’re currently on a low-interest rate mortgage, typically taken out in early 2022 or before, you can expect your monthly payments to rise regardless of when you’re remortgaging, as rates are unlikely to reach these low levels again any time soon.  

If you are currently on a higher mortgage rate (4.5% or more) and remortgaging this year, your monthly payments are likely to go down. In the longer term (2027 onwards), you can expect a calmer environment, with the average rate expected to stabilise at around 4.5%.  

Where can I find a comparison of mortgage rates post Spring Statement?  

If you’re buying a home with a mortgage or remortgaging, you can speak to a mortgage broker to help you find the best product for your circumstances. To get a rough comparison of mortgage rates post Spring Statement, various online calculators such as MoneySavingExpert and Moneyfacts are available. 

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How could the slower GDP growth forecast impact mortgages and homebuyers? 

GDP growth measures how much the economy is expanding over time. Stronger growth is often associated with higher employment, rising wages and greater consumer confidence. Current forecasts suggest growth may slow to around 1.1% in 2026 before gradually strengthening in the following years.

What does this mean for homebuyers? Slower growth in the shorter term could make banks more cautious to lend, and buyers might feel less confident about committing to such a big purchase if they’re concerned about job stability and the state of the economy more generally. This could make it harder to sell your home if you’re planning to move. 

However, the forecast suggests this slowdown may be temporary, so buyers and sellers may not be heavily affected, especially those with longer-term plans. 

What is the Spring Statement house price forecast 2026 and what does this mean for homebuyers? 

House prices are predicted to rise roughly in line with average wage growth over the next few years – around 2.4%- 2.9% per year. This means house prices and UK home affordability should remain relatively stable with no major spikes or crashes. 

What does this mean for homebuyers? This is good news for most homebuyers, as housing affordability in the UK should remain relatively stable, as long as average wages keep pace. If the forecasts are correct, it could be particularly good news for first-time buyers, as there’s unlikely to be a sharp spike in house prices that could make buying your first home unaffordable.  

Were any Stamp Duty changes announced in the Spring Statement? 

No Stamp Duty changes were announced today. Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) arrangements, such as the current thresholds and first-time buyer relief bands, stay the same as before. Currently, in England and Northern Ireland: 

• Buyers generally pay no SDLT on the first £125,000 of the property price. If the property is worth £125,001 or more, it is paid at varying rates depending on the price. 
• First-time buyers pay no SDLT on properties worth up to £300,000, and then a reduced rate up to £500,000. Normal rates apply on properties £500,001+. 

Those in Wales pay Land Transaction Tax and those in Scotland pay Land and Buildings Transaction Tax. 

How could the forecasts in the Spring Statement impact first-time buyers? 

The OBR predicts a stable, predictable rise in house prices broadly in line with average income rises. This creates a good environment for first-time buyers to plan their purchase, as prices are unlikely to spike in the coming years.  

In the short term, mortgage rates are expected to go down slightly, but this might not be the case in the longer term (2027-2030). However, average mortgage rates are expected to remain at a more stable level than recent years. So, first-time buyers might want to consider making a move now to take advantage of lower rates. But, even if you’re planning on moving in the slightly longer term, rates should remain stable, making it easier to plan your budget.  

Overall, firs time buyers should be able to enjoy a more stable market than recent years, making it easier to plan your first purchase whether you’re looking to move soon or in the next year or two. 

First-time buyer? At Setfords, we’re here to help. Our expert property solicitors will guide you through the process of making your house yours – called the conveyancing process. Get in touch for your no-obligation quote.

Is now a good time to buy or sell?

Deciding if now is the right time to buy or sell depends on your personal circumstances, but the forecasts can give some useful context.  

Buying now could mean taking advantage of lower mortgage rates than expected in coming years, as well as slightly lower house prices. However, the rise in prices is expected to be roughly in line with wage growth, so affordability should remain stable for the next few years.

As the market in general is expected to remain calm, waiting could give you more time to save for a deposit (which usually means a better interest rate on your mortgage) without having to worry about huge property price increases.  

Ultimately, it’s about deciding when is right for you based on your financial situation and long-term goals.

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If you are ready to make the move, Setfords is here to help. Our property lawyers can help you get into your new home faster than average. Plus, with hundreds of lawyers available nationwide and thousands of 5-star reviews on Trustpilot from first-time buyers and home movers alike, it’s easy to find the right lawyer for you. Whether you’ve found your dream home or are still searching, get in touch for a conveyancing quote, and we’ll be ready when you are.

Conclusion 

The 2026 Spring Statement points to a more predictable economic outlook over the next few years, with moderate house price growth, falling inflation, and mortgage rates that are likely to remain stable and manageable in the near term. For homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, this suggests a calmer housing market, where affordability remains relatively steady and long-term planning is easier. 

While there are no new housing policies or tax changes, the economic signals in the Spring Statement provide useful context for making decisions about when to buy. Cheaper mortgage payments in the short term and a steady rise in house prices offer a window of opportunity for those ready to take the next step. 

With stability in the market and support from Setfords, now could be the perfect time to make your move. Get in touch for your conveyancing quote.

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